NFL Season Preview

As we know sports betting isn’t currently legal in Ohio but I do think Win/Loss Over/Unders are a great way to look at expectations around a team. If you have a gambling addiction please call 1-800-522-4700

• Arizona Cardinals 8.5 (Last Season: 11)

The Cardinals are maybe the most challenging team for me to gauge. The defense is thin with little to no pass rush outside of Markus Golden unless JJ Watt somehow turns the clock back to 2018. It looks like Isaiah Simmons is going to be playing more safety, I was a fan of his coming out of the draft, but he hasn’t shown much so far in his two seasons of NFL play. Does that speak more to the coaching staff not knowing how to use him or the player himself? We have seen one of the NFL’s more notorious tropes pop up around him: the old “the game is slowing down for him” so maybe we’ll see a leap. The secondary is porous, and linebackers are nothing to write home about. On the offensive side of the ball, you have a poor line in front of an incredibly talented QB, but one that has also shown to be injury prone. Now Kyler Murray has only missed two games in his 3-year career, so that statement might seem a little odd, but in back-to-back years we have seen his play fall off at the end of seasons after nagging injuries to his shoulder and ankles. When healthy, he is electric and despite losing Christian Kirk, I don’t hate the WR room with the addition of Hollywood Brown as long as he doesn’t lose his mind like his cousin Antonio. Of course, they will also be short-staffed at the position for the first six weeks while Nuk Hopkins serves his suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. I also have concerns with the RB position. I’m just not sold on James Conner as a feature back but if Kyler can get the team to the goaline Conner is sure to pound it in given the chance. The team seems to like Eno Benjamin to fill the void left by Chase Edmonds immediately and they’ll need him to. I’m not the biggest fan of the strength of schedule discussions based on previous year’s win percentages, but for what it’s worth, the Cardinals have the second hardest schedule behind only the Super Bowl winning rams with their opponents winning over 54% of their games last season. All of that is to state the obvious, oddsmakers know what they’re doing with that 8.5-win total. While I’m still a fan of Kyler Murray and think he has the potential to elevate this roster past that number I’m still taking the under. If you look at their schedule to me I can only see 2 games that I’m confident they’ll win (Carolina and Atlanta) They’ll likely split with the teams in division and pick up some hard-fought wins against out-of-division opponents and fall just short of the playoff. 

• Atlanta Falcons 4.5 (Last Season: 4)

I won’t spend too much time on this team as I simply think they are bad. The roster isn’t completely void of talent though, I love Pitts and think Drake London has the potential to be special, Matt Hennesy and Cole Lindstrom were two of the best graded interior offensive lineman by PFF last season, Jake Matthews is still a serviceable tackle, AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward are one of the best CB tandems in the league. Outside of that though you don’t have much, terrible safety and LB play with not a single guy at those positions ranking in the top half of PFF grades, your QB is likely Marcus Mariota for most of the season before he inevitably gets benched mid-season for 3rd round rookie Desmond Ridder. You have those guys throwing to, outside of the aforementioned Pitts and London, a ragtag group of castaways from other teams with Bryan Edwards coming over from the Raiders, Anthony Firkser and Mycole Pruitt joining back up with Arthur Smith from the Titans and you’re relying on Corderelle Patterson having a repeat performance at RB (despite it costing me in fantasy last year I still haven’t bought into him). On top of that, the Falcons have one of the most demanding schedules in the league, not a single game jumps out at me as a sure-fire win. 

I’m taking the under here without a doubt.

• Baltimore Ravens 9.5 (Last Season: 8)

I love this team. Despite being one of the unluckiest teams last year in terms of injuries and covid the Ravens still managed 8 wins. They aren’t without questions though especially at WR after trading away Hollywood Brown. Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay did flash at times last season. The word out of camp is the team loves James Porche II some calling him the Ravens’ “best-kept secret” and of course maybe the league’s best TE Mark Andrews is still there as the ultimate safety valve. Hence, I’m not too concerned about the pass catchers in what will surely be a run-heavy offense with Lamar Jackson at the helm. I love the Ravens’ group of RB but they aren’t without their questions either, the main one being health. JK Dobbins looks like he’ll probably play week one but Gus Edwards is still nursing his knee injury. Running Back isn’t the only position with injury concerns either with rookie center Tyler Linderbaum nursing a foot injury and star tackle Ronnie Stanley still trying to get back from an ankle injury the team seems to be optimistic that both are back for week 1. Still, an offensive line needs time to gel and I’m not sure they will be at peak form to start the season. 

On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve added Kyle Fuller and Marcus Williams to what was already a stellar secondary when healthy and of course, it seems like the Ravens always find production out of their backers and d-line.  

Led by one of the league’s most consistent coaches, I like the Ravens to stay healthy and return to form, winning a minimum of 10 games. Will it be enough to win a tough division though?

• Buffalo Bills 11.5 (Last Season: 11)

The Bills are my favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. It’s hard to play the what-if game. Still, I truly believe if that coin toss goes the other way against the Chiefs I don’t get to brag daily about Matthew Stafford finally winning a Super Bowl because Josh Allen and the Bills would have handled the Bengals and Rams on their way to a long-awaited championship for Bills Mafia. Josh Allen is, if not the best, clearly, one of the top 5 best QBs in the league and he gets to throw to one of the NFL’s premier WRs in Stefon Diggs, great deep threat Gabriel Davis, and one of the most overlooked TEs in the league, Dawson Knox. I think they want more in the pass-catching department though and that’s why we’ve seen Von Miller courting Odell Becham Jr on social media in recent weeks. Currently, the team hopes new additions Jamison Crowder and OJ Howard can add some production and depth. I have some questions on the offensive line but as always the two tackles are your most essential guys and the Bills have two good to great ones with Dion Dawkins and David Quessenberry, Josh Allen is also one of the league’s best QBs at escaping pressure so he’ll cover up the holes at the other positions if required to. We’re in a pass-happy league but running backs are still important and having two below-average guys at that position cost the Bills at times last season so they went out and drafted James Cook, to me James has all the potential to be as dynamic as his broth Dalvin is in Minnesota and if that is the case the league better look out. 

Defensively last season the Bills were average at best which was a little surprising. Ultimately the team decided to part ways with longtime contributors Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes; they’ll look to replace that production with Von Miller and hope young guys Gregory Rousseau and AJ Epenesa step up and Ed Oliver continues to shine. Of course, you can’t talk about the Bills’ defense without mentioning Matt Milano, one of the league’s best linebackers and a guy I don’t think gets quite enough recognition from the average NFL fan. The Bills’ defense goes as Matt Milano goes when he is off the field you can notice a stark difference in play, he is the QB of their defense, and being one of the absolute best coverage LBs in the game he helps to cover a lot of holes. 

Sean Mcdermott will have these guys ready to finish what they started last year, look for the Bills to hit that over on their way to a super bowl appearance.

• Carolina Panthers 6.5 (Last Season: 5)

Do the Panthers know what they’re doing? First, they trade three picks to the Jets, including a 2nd and 4th, in exchange for Sam Darnold. If that wasn’t bad enough they then decide to needlessly pick up his fifth-year option almost immediately upon joining the team locking them in for an over $18 million cap hit for this coming season. Now after realizing Sam Darnold simply isn’t it, they bring in his draft mate Baker Mayfield by sending a conditional 2024 draft pick for the Browns. At least with the Baker deal, the Browns were desperate to get Mayfield out the door and agreed to pay most of his contract. I like Baker more than most but I’m not sure how he fits into a Matt Rhule offense. Rhule wants his QBs to be decisive and get the ball out quick; that just has never been a strong suit for the Heisman-winning quarterback and it remains to be seen if he can change or even wants to but he’ll have to if this team wants to find success. The former Oklahoma standout will have a decent enough cast of characters around him with DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson returning, I just hope for Robbie’s sake he has more chemistry with Baker than he did with Darnold last season. The Panthers also made a late preseason trade to acquire Laviska Shenault. I think a change of scenery will do him well but I might be only one of a few Shenault believers remaining. Of course, any optimism one might have for this offense hinges on the health of its star Christian McCaffrey. When healthy, Run CMC is arguably the best back in the league and can carry an offense but when he’s out the team tends to flounder.  

On the other side of the ball the Panthers were stellar to start the 2021 season but fell off majorly by season’s end finishing 21st in points per game allowed, 30th in red zone percentage, and 26th in takeaways and they did little to nothing to improve in the offseason. 

I think it is pretty clear Matt Rhule is coaching for his job this season and quite frankly I don’t think the odds are in his favor. So look for the Panthers to be bottom dwellers yet again this season.

• Chicago Bears 6.5 (Last Season: 6)

The Bears are teaching a masterclass on exactly how not to help a young QB. Justin Fields will once again be thrown behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and unless Byron Pringle proves himself to not simply be a product of Patrick Mahomes, as I believe him to be, the Ohio State Product will once again have to force balls to his only good receiver in Darnell Mooney. Fortunately, the Bears do have one of the better backfield tandems in the NFL with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. Unfortunately, shortening the game with a run-heavy offense might be the only chance this team has at winning games with one of the league’s worst defenses.

Last season the Bears allowed 24 PPG and somehow managed to get worse losing Khalil Mack, Eddie Goldman, and Akiem Hicks this offseason. Chicago will hope new defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus can help right the ship but it will be an uphill battle.

Unless Justin Fields suddenly turns into the second coming, I cannot envision this team surpassing last season’s win total of 6 games. 

• Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 (Last Season: 10)

What is there not to like about this team? The Bengals have an incredible offense featuring the coolest QB in the NFL Joe Burrow, two top 15 WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, another stud in the slot Tyler Boyd, one of the league’s premier running backs in Joe Mixon, and if that wasn’t enough they improved at Tight End and on the line adding Hayden Hurst, Alex Cappa, Ted Karras, and La’el Collins.

Cincinnati’s defense also features an enormous amount of talent, including the league’s most underappreciated edge rusher, my baby boy Trey Hendrickson, a PFF top 10 interior lineman DJ Reader, and Logan Wilson, a name you need to get familiar with. The only two questions I have are in the secondary. Is Eli Apple really a starting outside corner and what happens with Jessie Bates? So far the word out of Bengals training camp is Apple is tearing it up and has been winning consistently against Chase, I’ll believe it when I see it though. Bates admittedly took plays off last season trying to save himself for a new contract, one he likely won’t receive, still expect Bates to play for the Bengals this season and turn it on when it matters just as he did in the playoffs last year but if things go sour his replacement, Daxton Hill is waiting in the wings. 

I have been very critical of Zac Taylor in the past but the team seems to love him and I have been encouraged by many of the changes he has made. If he lets Joe Burrow run the show and doesn’t take the ball out of his hands in critical situations the Bengals will pass last year’s win total on their way to a division title.

• Cleveland Browns 8.5 (Last Season: 10)

It is hard for me to talk about this team objectively after they decided to sell their souls for a Quarterback accused of sexual assault by over 20 women. Deshaun Watson being a human-sized pile of garbage (allegedly of course) the Browns clearly have a Super Bowl caliber roster but with Watson suspended for 11 games I’m not sure they will reach that potential. If it were up to me Watson would never see the field again but that isn’t the world we live in. Deshaun Watson the football player is an incredible one and if he was set to be on the field for all 17 games this season me picking the Bengals to win the division would be a lot harder but that also isn’t the reality we live in. While it has been rumored Cleveland is looking at famous handsome quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, right now Jacoby Brissett is set to start eleven games for the Browns. Yet, even knowing that Kevin Stefanski and the Browns continued to give Watson the first team reps at camp, a move I question heavily. I love the addition of Amari Cooper to this team, a move that looks like a massive steal after the insane deals we’ve seen handed out to receivers after the fact, but will he have time to develop chemistry with the man who will be throwing him the ball to start the season? If Watson sees the field this year Donovan Peoples-Jones is the type of target he could fall in love with and a prime candidate to take a massive leap forward but will he be able to? Despite going all in on a QB the Browns’ offense will once again be forced to lean on their running game led by the league’s best running back Nick Chubb luckily for them he is absolutely good enough to carry the load.

On defense, the Browns are as talent-rich at every level as any team in the league featuring the league’s best edge rusher Myles Garrett, maybe the NFL’s best young off-ball linebacker Jerimiah Owusu-Koramoa, and my favorite group of corners in the NFL Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, and Greedy Williams. The only flaw on this side of the ball of the Browns is in the interior but the rest of the talent featured on this defense should be more than enough to carry them.

Browns faithful will hope this year isn’t another lost season of Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett’s prime and with the Deshaun Watson suspension it seems like it might just be the case.

• Dallas Cowboys 10.5 (Last Season: 12)

The Cowboys had an interesting offseason, to say the least, and not interesting in the way I’m sure Cowboys fans were hoping. They started off trading away Amari Cooper, a move I didn’t hate at the time. It’s what followed the trade that left me scratching my head. Instead of bringing in one of the marquee names on the market, the Dallas Jerry Joneses decided to bring in James Washington from the Steelers. Washington flashed early in his career but never seemed to get his footing in what is typically a wide receiver friendly offense and now a questionable move, to begin with, looks even worse with the former Oklahoma State standout scheduled to be out 6-10 weeks with a foot fracture. Dak Prescott is a talented QB but this season is where we find out if he is genuinely elite or just a good QB elevated by the talent around him. Of course, Prescott will still have Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Shultz to throw to that’s nothing to scoff at but the offensive line that was once seen as the league’s best is now a shell of its former self. Speaking of shells, Jerry Jones has said publicly Ezekiel Elliot will continue to be the team’s feature back, a role many thought would be handed over to Tony Pollard this season. As a serial Zeke defender, I already feel dirty taking that shell jab but it is no secret he struggled at times last season. Hopefully, it was simply the nagging knee injury he had and not him losing a step. If Zeke can return to form the offense’s chances of being one of the league’s best once again grow exponentially.

The defense might just need the offense to be exceptional. Dallas finished last season 7th in scoring defense and 1st in turnovers created so you might be asking yourself why I’m a little down on them. The Cowboys gave up a lot of big plays last season but more than made up for that by making big plays themselves. It is nearly impossible to repeat those big plays year to year, a regression to the mean is almost guaranteed. I still like the roster overall but it’ll be hard for Dan Quinn and the boys to carry this team as they did to end last season.

This is an important year for Mike McCarthy as head coach with rumors of Sean Payton looming over him. If the Cowboys don’t find themselves winning a playoff game or two it is hard to imagine Big Mike will be returning to Dallas. I think this has all the potential to be a letdown season for a talented squad and next season we’ll see Sean Payton grace America’s team on the sidelines.   

• Denver Broncos 10.5 (Last Season: 7)

The Broncos made a massive splash this offseason by bringing in Russell Wilson. A quarterback has long been seen as the lone missing piece for this roster and now he has been found. Ciara’s husband thought he would enter one of America’s highest cities and throw to an exciting cast of characters. Unfortunately for Mr. Unlimited, he has already lost his big X receiver Tim Patrick for the season. Russ will still have Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam but the latter three remain unproven. I anticipate Jeudy and Albert O flourishing with Russ throwing to them but we’ll just have to wait and see. In addition to an exciting group of pass catchers, the Fighting Elways have a backfield duo as good as any in the NFL with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. 

Last season Denver devoured bad offenses and finished the season as the NFL’s second-best scoring defense. However, they did lose one of the league’s most talented defensive minds in Vic Fangio when he was replaced with a more offensive-minded head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. Still, Denver has maybe the best secondary in the NFL and if their pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory can stay on the field I like them to finish near the top of the league again.

With a first-year head coach and a demanding schedule, only helped by a few terrible out-of-division opponents, I think it will be hard for this team to get any more than 10 wins. 

• Detroit Lions 6.5 (Last Season: 3)

My Detroit Lions. The love of my life. The thing that hurts me more than anything.

I want to be objective here but it simply is not possible. I have consumed so much Lions Kool-Aid my stomach hurts. I need to see a chiropractor because I’ve run through so many damn walls listening to Dan Campbell. I’ve gone through an entire box of tissues watching Hard Knocks and not just because I’ve been crying watching Jamaal Williams give heartfelt speeches to the team.

I’ll start with the bad: 

1. Jared Goff is their quarterback. Please for the love of god Brad Holmes replaces the man next season.
2.  The defense will likely be one of the league’s worst again with a young secondary, a talent-deficient group of linebackers, and a pass rush heavily relying on second overall pick Aidan Hutchinson being an immediate star (good thing he will be). 

The good? On offense the team is surprisingly talented with a top 5 offensive line, one of the NFL’s best tight ends TJ Hockenson, an excellent running back duo in D’Andre Swift and Jaamal Williams, and a sneaky good receiving core with DJ Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams leading the way. On top of that, it appears they’re being led by a coaching staff that actually knows what they are doing. If you haven’t already please pull up the list of the Lions’ current coaching staff it’ll be a nice trip down memory lane.

Do I know I will almost assuredly be let down by this team as I always am? Yes. Is that going to stop me from buying in once again? HELL NO! 

Lions 11-5-1* baby! 

*Lions 7-10

• Green Bay Packers 10.5 (Last Season: 13)

Again I’ll try my best to be objective here but the Packers are easily my most hated team and a source of significant torment over the years that also means nobody knows just how good the Green Bay Packers can be more than me.

I really don’t have too much to say about this team. I could act like I’m concerned with their talent at wide receiver but back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers is their QB. I could act like I’m concerned with their offensive line as David Bakhtiari battles to get back on the field but ayahuasca user Aaron Rodgers is their QB.

In addition to having the man who hates his family more than maybe anybody else on earth at QB the Pack is set to have one of the NFL’s best defenses with Jaire Alexander back healthy joining a long list of stars like Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and De’Vondre Campbell. 

Despite trading away the league’s best receiver Green Bay should run away with an easy division and find themselves in the hunt for a Super Bowl once again. Man, I can’t wait to see how A-A Ron chokes in the postseason this year.

• Houston Texans 4.5 (Last Season: 4)

To put it bluntly, the Texans are a bad team, but they are an exciting team nonetheless. While the Houston roster lacks the top-end talent to be a truly good team the organization has done a decent job of finding veterans that know how to be successful in the NFL. The Texans have the fourth oldest roster in the NFL with an average age of 27.14. Is that a smart move for a rebuilding team? That remains to be seen. On one hand, you could say it’s nice to have vets to ease the young guys into the league but on the other, you could see the older players as progress stoppers. Putting the future aside, adding veterans like Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes this offseason should make Houston a slightly better team in the present. Lovie Smith’s team does have some youth to get excited about as well with the additions of Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre at corner, Nico Collins has been receiving rave reviews out of camp, and Davis Mills showed much more potential last season than was expected. 

While having a few bright spots the Texans are still a largely talent-deficient team and I’d be surprised if they hit the 5-win mark again while playing a relatively tough schedule. 

• Indianapolis Colts 9.5 (Last Season: 9)

The Colts have spent the offseason heaping immense amounts of praise onto their new, not-so-new, QB Matt Ryan making it abundantly clear the team did not like Carson Wentz and he just might not be leadership material. While Matt Ryan might be past his prime at 37 years old he is a consummate pro and proven leader Indianapolis thinks that alone can help improve a team that finished just a game outside of the playoffs. 

The Colts’ offense is a hard one for me to gauge. The ponies have one of the best running backs in the NFL with Jonathan Taylor, a nice scatback in Nyheim Hines, and a pretty good offensive line led by the phenomenal Quinton Nelson, but are incredibly thin at WR. Michael Pittman Jr. is a stud, I’m not worried about him at all. Outside of the second-year standout is where the problem lies with Indianapolis relying on 2nd round rookie Alec Pierce and the health of Parris Campbell. Campbell shows great potential when on the field but has yet to play more than 7 games in a season. If things go right this could be a decent group but boy do things really need to go right the Colts have left themselves almost no margin for error at receiver.

I love the Colts’ defense especially after bringing in Gus Bradley at coordinator, trading for Yannick Ngakoue, and adding Stephon Gillmore to pair with arguably the league’s best slot corner, Kenny Moore. This should be one of the NFL’s best defenses with the only concern being the health of star linebacker Shaquille Leonard, formerly Darius. Leonard is currently dealing with a back injury which is probably the last type of injury you want to have one of the NFL’s best linebackers to be dealing with. If Shaquille can’t go his massive shoes will have to be filled by Villanova rookie Forrest Rhyne.

The Colts need a lot to go right if they want to be contenders this year but luckily for them, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules on paper. The team should have no problem reaching last year’s win total while leaning heavily on the running game and defense but it will be hard for them to surpass that number without a lot of things going right. Frank Reich might just be coaching for his job the season with owner Jim Irsay wanting nothing less than a playoff win. I’m not so sure they get it.     

• Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 (Last Season: 3)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot to be excited about going into this season. First and foremost they have a competent leader as head coach with Doug Pederson arriving. The Jags also made a ton of offseason moves to improve areas of weakness bringing in top offensive line free agent Brandon Scherff, Arden Key at the edge, WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to replace DJ Chark, 2021 leading tackler Foyesade Oluokun, TE Evan Engram, and CB Darious Williams. While GM Trent Baalke might have overpaid some of these guys (I’m looking at you Christian Kirk) it is nice to see the Jags have moved out of tank mode and are trying to improve around their young QB that is undoubtedly more than can be said about some other teams (DA BEARS).

If Trevor Lawrence is the player we thought he was coming out of college, and I think he is, nothing I type after this will matter because the Jags’ offense will be a competent one. 

I don’t think Christian Kirk is an actual number 1 like he got paid to be but money aside, I do like the looks of Marvin Jones, Kirk, Zay Jones, and Tim Jones as a receiver core. I also LOVE this team’s backfield, James Robinson is the best UDFA pickup in recent memory and I would be surprised if Travis Etienne didn’t make an immediate impact now that he is back and healthy. Now the bad… Evan Engram is certainly better than the blackhole the Jags had at TE previously but is still an underwhelming addition and while somewhat improved the line could still be one of the league’s worst. 

The Jags spent a ton of money and draft capital on defense this offseason. Still, after finishing 28th in total defense in 2021 it will be hard for this team to be any better than the middle of the road on D unless Travon Walker and Devon Lloyd are immediate superstars.

With co-ed loving, kicker kicking Urban Meyer given the boot and proven Super Bowl winning head coach Doug Pederson entering the picture the Jags should have no problem improving on a disastrous 2021 even so it’s hard for me to picture them winning any more than 6 games with a tough schedule in front of them in 2022. 

• Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 (Last Season: 12)

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can answer any questions I have about this roster. Is the defense still middle of the road at best? Sure. Will they miss Tyreek Hill? Maybe a little. Can Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid cover those flaws with the help of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones? Absolutely.

While I’m not too concerned with the future of the Chiefs they will have one of the league’s hardest schedules thanks to a brutal division. I like the Chiefs to find themselves in the playoffs once again but winning more than 10 games will be a commendable feat. 

• Los Angeles Chargers 10.5 (Last Season: 9)

The Chargers are only behind the Bills as my favorite team to win it all this year. Justin Herbert is a top 3 QB playing behind what should be an elite line, especially if the rave reviews coming out of camp around Zion Johnson turn out to be true.  

On defense, the Chargers improved drastically with the additions of Khalil Mack and JC Jackson. The Bolts will still need improved play out of their off-ball linebackers but with a strong secondary led by star safety Derwin James and a pass rush featuring two bona fide studs in Joey Bosa and Mack I’m not too sure how much it’ll matter.

Los Angeles is my favorite to win the AFC West and should be the only team in the division to hit that 11-win mark.

• Los Angeles Rams 10.5 (Last Season: 12)

The Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams will try to become the first team to repeat as champion since the Patriots in 2005. The Rams made one of my favorite offseason moves when they brought in Allen Robinson. Robinson is a guy I begged and pleaded for the Lions to acquire to pair with Stafford many moons ago but it wasn’t to be. The big-bodied jump ball beast is the perfect WR to complement the gunslinger. Los Angeles also remains the favorite to land Odell Beckham Jr. when he returns mid-season from his ACL tear. If OBJ does return an already scary receiver group featuring last year’s triple crown winner Cooper Kupp becomes all the more terrifying. 

Stafford is currently nursing an elbow injury; nothing specific on the type of injury has been revealed but McVay did say he hadn’t seen anything like it in his time in football. Obviously, any injury to a QB’s throwing arm isn’t ideal luckily it does appear that the problem will mostly come down to pain tolerance and Stafford has never had any problem with that in the past. Though I’m not ready to panic over Stafford’s elbow just yet, coupled with the loss of steadfast left tackle Andrew Whitworth it is a bit concerning. McVay and the Rams will look to replace the grizzled vet with Joseph Noteboom who played nicely for them in key spots last year. 

Last season the Rams recognized a weakness in their pass rush and made a season-saving trade for Von Miller with the Broncos legend now in Buffalo you could see them run into a similar situation. If that is the case I’m confident this organization would make a midseason move once again. GM Les Snead never just sits on his hands, after losing Miller he made sure to grab one of the league’s best interior backers in Bobby Wagner. This move, in my eyes, is to help them in a run-heavy division and with the 49ers especially who they have struggled with mightily during Sean McVay’s tenure. Snead also brought back Troy Hill to bolster their already dominant secondary. Hill played his best ball in LA before having a down season in Cleveland last year. I believe he’ll return to form now that he is back home. 

I will never be worried about the Rams as long as the best coach and GM duo in the NFL is leading them and even with the toughest schedule in the league this season I like the Rams to win a minimum of 11 games on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.

• Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 (Last Season: 10)

Last season the Raiders lost their head coach in a massive scandal and had a budding star receiver thrown in jail after killing a 23-year-old woman in a drunk driving accident. Yet, despite all that, they still made the playoffs. Now the team has added the league’s best WR Davante Adams and brought in longtime Patriots play caller Josh McDaniels to lead the team. 

On offense, this team should be exciting. Derek Carr has had an interesting career at points I’ve felt he was overrated but now he is seemingly undervalued by the masses. While not a truly elite QB, Carr is more than serviceable and good enough not to hold back a team but not quite good enough to elevate one. He won’t need to with a group of pass catchers including Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller. McDaniels will also easily be the best play caller David’s little brother has had in his career.

Defensively the Raiders lost a lot with Yannick Ngakoue, Solomon Thomas, and Casey Hayward leaving Las Vegas. While they did add underrated pass rusher Chandler Jones I’m not confident in this unit being any more than an average group and in a division featuring Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and now Russell Wilson they will need to be better than average.

In any other division I would be much higher on this team as a whole but one team, maybe two, is all but guaranteed to have a letdown season in the AFC South and the Raiders are my pick to have that happen. 

• Miami Dolphins 8.5 (Last Season: 9)

The Dolphins had an offseason marred in controversy after being sued by their former head coach Brian Flores. Flores shouldn’t have been let go in my opinion but I do like new hire Mike McDaniel that said he is certainly an experiment and based on offseason rumors, not the Dolphins’ first choice for the position that guy is probably Sean Payton. Yet, Miami might be the team I’m most interested in seeing hit the field in 2022. 

Offensively they brought in the most electric athlete in the NFL with the addition of Tyreek Hill pairing him with young stud Jaylen Waddle Miami now has a WR duo as good as any in the league. Coming from the school of Shanahan, McDaniel should be able to establish an innovative running attack with Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin, and Raheem Mostert. The run-heavy approach has raised some questions about how TE Mike Gesicki fits in as one of the worst blockers at the position. GM Chris Grier quickly shot down trade rumors but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved at some point. The offensive line has been a major problem for Miami during Tua’s short tenure. He should be pleased with the addition of Terron Armstead at LT even so this unit shouldn’t be more than average but average is a massive improvement on what they had last season.

Defensively the Dolphins have one of the best secondaries in football and one of my favorite corner-safety duos with Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland. They also have two of the top 10 highest PFF-graded interior defensive linemen in Christian Wilkins and Zach Seiler. This unit should be near the top of the league but it’s no secret Brian Flores is a defensive wizard so his departure could have some adverse effects on the group.

If Tua Tagovailoa can elevate his play with the help of Tyreek Hill and an improved line and the defense can keep a similar level of success to what they found under Flores Miami should be able to win 9 games again against a relatively easy schedule.

• Minnesota Vikings 9.5 (Last Season: 8)

After years of rumored tension between former HC Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins, Cousins will now be paired with his former QB coach Kevin O’Connell. It seems every offseason a Sean McVay disciple will find themselves a job leading a team so far it’s been a winning strategy with Zac Taylor leading Cincinnati to a Super Bowl appearance and Brandon Staley having the Chargers on track to reach a similar peak. So will Minnesota be the next team to find success after dipping into the McVay coaching pool? 

Minnesota has a talented offense featuring a top-tier RB Dalvin Cook, my favorite WR in the league Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and KJ Osborn. While Cousins isn’t one of my favorite QBs and might not be cut out for the big moments, I think he was held back by Mike Zimmer. Zimmer is a great defensive mind but he was seemingly against evolving with the now offense-dominated league. If the Vikings improve this season it will be because O’Connell brings a more aggressive approach to offense.

If healthy it is hard to find significant holes on defense for the Vikes with a secondary featuring Harrison Smith, Cameron Dantzler, and rookie Lewis Cine; a fierce LB duo Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks; Dalvin Tomlinson filling up the middle of the line, and Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith coming off the edge.

Minnesota should have no problem improving on a disappointing 2021 season playing in a weak division.  

• New England Patriots 8.5 (Last Season: 10)

I’ll start by saying it is tough for me to be concerned with a team coached by Bill Belichick but if I were seeing and hearing the news coming out of Patriots camp from another team I would be smashing the panic button. 

The Patriots are installing a new offense this season they will be going from the power scheme they’ve run for the last 20 years to a zone blocking scheme. According to reports Belichick sees the writing on the wall and thinks New England needs to evolve with the league. Tom Curran (if you’re looking for Patriots news he is the guy to look to) believes Bill is willing to be bad for a season because he thinks the offensive change will be beneficial in the long run. I’m not one to question the greatest coach in the history of the sport but he has Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator and failed head coach, handling the new install. Greg Bedard of the Boston Sports Journal said “I have never seen an NFL offense this bad this far into camp.” that does not seem great…

On the other side of the ball, New England finished 2021 3rd in points allowed giving up only 19.3. Still, they were exposed by their division rivals Buffalo in the wild card and then proceeded to let JC Jackson walk away from an already thin secondary. It looks like Jalen Mills will be the Patriots’ number one corner. On any other team, I’d be concerned but Belichick always finds a way to scheme up a formidable defensive unit. 

Take away Bill Belichick and I wouldn’t be sold on this team winning more than 4 games but they do have him and I’ll never bet against that man. 

• New Orleans Saints 8.5 (Last Season: 9)

Typically when you see a team lose its head coach it is immediately followed by turnover within the coaching staff and roster. After losing Sean Payton that wasn’t the case for the Saints instead they elevated Dennis Allen and kept everybody else in their same positions. It would have been easy for New Orleans to take this as an opportunity to retool the roster but they see themselves as contenders. Are they?

Throughout this preview, I’ve started talking about offenses first but more than any other team in the NFL when you talk about New Orleans you have to start with the defense. The Saints finished last season as the no.1 scoring defense, while it is hard to go back to back at no.1 I would be blown away if they even fell out of the top 5. This team is loaded at every level their secondary features a top-of-the-line lockdown CB Marshon Lattimore who is complemented by the likes of Bradley Roby, the improving Paulson Adebo, and what should be one of the best, if not the best, safety duos in the league Tyrann Mathieu with Marcus Maye. The safety duo might be the most significant question mark though Maye is coming off the worst season of his career and is now accused of aggravated assault with a firearm, of course, Maye maintains his innocence and as of now no punishment has been handed out. If and when Maye is suspended he’ll likely be replaced by PJ Williams who played well in spots last season. The Saints also have a great LB core led by star Demario Davis and two budding studs Pete Werner and Zach Braun. If that wasn’t enough New Orleans has possibly the best defensive line in football With Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Shy Tuttle. To put it simply this is the type of defense that can carry a team.

The Saints’ offense has a lot more question marks than their defense. After losing star LT Terron Armstead, an already average offensive line got worse and they’ll need Trevor Penning to step up in a big way to fill those shoes. Maybe the biggest question for this team outside of how they’ll fare without Sean Payton is what will Michael Thomas look like after not playing for nearly two years? One paper the WR core of Thomas, Jarvis Landry, rookie Chris Olave, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harty is a great one but if Thomas is a shell of himself and Olave doesn’t live up to the hype we might not be saying that by season’s end. For what it’s worth I’m buying into the Thomas comeback and I’m all in on Olave so I’m not concerned. We are also still wondering if Alvin Kamara, one of the league’s best running backs, will receive a suspension for a felony battery charge. If he does it’ll likely be six games, that six games without their best player will certainly be a concern for the Saints. At the end of the day, any NFL offense’s success falls on the arm of their QB. Jameis Winston will need to keep his turnovers in check if he can this should be an offense with enough talent to score points.

Despite having a brutal schedule I like the Saints to match last season’s win total. New Orleans has a defense that can carry any team and has shown they can dominate their division foes. All that said there’s a universe where everything falls apart without Sean Payton.

• New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season: 4)

I’ll keep this one short. I love Brian Daboll and if anybody can fix this putrid offense it is him but even with talented playmakers like Saquon Barkley and Kadarius Toney, I’m just not confident Daniel Jones will take a step forward and make this a competent unit. The Giants could end up having one of the best defensive lines in the game but with a secondary and linebacking core lacking top-end talent I expect them to struggle on that side of the ball as well. 

It feels like Vegas knows something I don’t here. I expect the Giants to pick a QB near the top of the draft after this season. 

• New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season: 4)

This season for New York is all about evaluating QB Zach Wilson. At times Wilson flashed last season but those moments were few and far between and he seemed to lose some confidence after his injury last season. Now nursing another injury I start to question if Wilson is built for football at the NFL level even after he added some muscle in the offseason. While the line in front of him is less than desirable the pretty boy will have the weapons on the outside and behind him to show he’s the guy. The Jets are surprisingly a talented group at the skill positions with the likes of Elijah Moore a budding superstar, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, new addition Garrett Wilson, and a runningback duo with an incredibly high ceiling in Michael Carter and Breece Hall. 

 The Jets have a formidable defensive line for the first time in what seems like a decade as long as Carl Lawson returns to form and by all accounts he is set to do just that. If Sauce Gardner lives up to his name they should also have a competent secondary with him, Bryce Hall, DJ Reed, and Jordan Whitehead. With the talent present here if Robert Saleh lives up to his billing as a defensive genius this should be a fun group to watch.

While surprisingly talented the New York Jets still have massive dumpster fire potential. I think they squeak out 6 games but many more than that would be a huge surprise.

• Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 (Last Season: 9)

I won’t even hold you this is one of the most talented rosters from top to bottom. 

On offense you have three star pass catchers in AJ Brown, Davonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert; arguably the NFL’s best offensive line led by two stars at the tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, and the always steady Jason Kelce locking down the middle. Last season Miles Sanders started slow but managed to end the season with 5.5 Y/A but with only 137 carries I have to wonder why Nick Siriani doesn’t like Sanders as much as I do. If Jalen Hurts proves himself to be a star at the QB position this should be a top 5 offense.

Defensively the Eagles are just as talented with a loaded secondary featuring PFF’s fourth highest graded corner Darius Slay, lock down slot corner Avonte Maddox, James Bradberry coming over from the Giants, freshly acquired hybrid DB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and safety Marcus Epps; the 10th and 20th highest graded LB in TJ Edwards and Kyzir White; and a monstrous pass rush with Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave eating up space in the middle and Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat coming off the edge.  

The Eagles are all in this season and I’m joining them. Philadelphia is my pick to run away with the NFC East. 

• Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 (Last Season: 9)

Could this be the first time Pittsburgh has a losing record under Mike Tomlin?

Last year with a washed Ben Roethlisberger behind a putrid offensive line the Steelers still managed to win 9 games. Now Mitchell Trubisky is set to start the season as QB1 but I’d expect rookie and beloved Pitt product Kenny Pickett to start at some point. Whoever starts at QB this year will have a great cast of characters at the skill positions to work with. Pittsburgh drafts and develops receivers better than anybody and of course, George Pickens fell right in their laps this year. I expect Pickens to have a big year for the black and gold and eventually take over at WR1 over Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. The Steelers also have a star at RB with Najee Harris but even he couldn’t muster more than 3.9 Y/A last season behind what was a terrible line. With the addition of James Daniels, Pittsburgh hoped to sure up that position group but in the preseason it didn’t seem to be the case. Brian Baldinger even went as far as saying “He doesn’t have the same power [as before]” With even average QB and line play the Steelers have the skill position players to be a successful offense but I’m just not sure they’re going to get that.

Pittsburgh has always prided itself on defense but last season they finished 22nd in points allowed despite leading the league in sacks for the fifth straight season. It is hard for me to picture a Mike Tomlin defense led by TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick being as bad as they were last season but this definitely isn’t the Steelers defense you once knew.

Put this team with a below-average head coach or even a different uniform and I probably pick them to win six games but this is the Mike Tomlin-led Pittsburgh Steelers and I refuse to bet against them until we finally see Tomlin deliver a losing season.

• San Francisco 49ers 9.5 (Last Season: 10)

The 49ers are loaded and have one of the best offensive minds in the game leading them.

The biggest question for everybody coming into this year is what will Trey Lance be. Last season Lance’s performance was less than desirable but we now know he had a hand injury hindering his ability to grip the ball. On paper, the North Dakota State product has all the tools to take this offense to the next level. Lance has a cannon arm and can run with the best of them if he can reach his potential the 49ers will have found their Josh Allen and no coach is better at getting the best out of a QB than Kyle Shanahan. Unlike some other young QBs in the league, Lance has all the pieces around him to be successful with a true WR1 in Deebo Samuel who created a new position last season and netted himself a massive contract as a Wide Back. Lance also has, in my opinion, the best tight end in football George Kittle, and upfront the NFL’s best tackle Trent Williams.

San Francisco will also have one of the best defenses in the NFL led by Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Fred Warner. The secondary might be a slight weak spot but if Jason Verrett can stay healthy it could quickly become a strength after Emmanuel Mosely, Chavarius Ward, and Jimmie Ward had strong seasons in 2021.

The worst-case scenario for this squad is the QB who led them to 10 wins last season and a Super Bowl appearance in 2019 will have to step back in. The best case is Trey Lance proves himself to be the real deal and elevates this team to new heights. I’m leaning towards the latter and expect a deep playoff run once again from Shanahan and the boys.

• Seattle Seahawks 5.5 (Last Season: 7)

The Seahawks are a team in turmoil. They will likely be sold in the next year or two and new ownership will have to deal with the consequences of the current ownership picking Pete Caroll over Russell Wilson. So instead of going into the season with Wilson once again throwing to one of the best WR duos in the league DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, we’ll see Geno Smith attempt to fill the role. One of the major problems Wilson had playing in Seattle was the lack of offensive line help and that continues to be a problem with a far less skilled QB behind center things could get ugly. Despite that this seems like a dream come true for Pete Carroll who will be able to finally justify running the air out of the ball with a great running back duo in Rashaad Penny and rookie Kenneth Walker III. 

On defense, Seattle has some underrated players like Quandre Diggs, Poona Ford, and Al Woods but this is a far cry from the legion of boom defense that once carried this team especially after Bobby Wagner fled to division rival Los Angeles. 

Seattle is primed to be a bottom dweller this season. Pete Carroll will have to evolve if he wants to find success in the league again and at 70 I’m just not sure that will happen and Seattle will regret picking him over franchise QB Russell Wilson. 

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 (Last Season: 13)

Tampa Bay is one of those teams you just can’t doubt as long as they have Tom Brady but with the loss of head coach Bruce Arians and two starting offensive linemen in the offseason they aren’t without some question marks. 

Tom Brady is just one of those guys you can’t pick against and every time you do you look dumb but when we have seen him falter it is almost always because of shoddy o-line play. With Alex Cappa heading to Cincinnati, Ali Marpet retiring, and Ryan Jensen nursing a knee injury, one of the league’s best lines now has some holes to fill. The Bucs did bring in Shaq Mason to fill in at guard and they still have two elite tackles with Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith. The TOMpa Bay Buccaneers still have a great set of weapons, but losing Antonio Brown and Brady’s favorite target Gronk will cause the offense to start slow. 

Bolstered by a great secondary and the league’s best-run stuffer Vita Vea Tampa Bay should have no issue being an elite defense again this season. 

With Tom Brady still at the helm and Byron Leftwich still somehow calling his plays -seriously how is he not a head coach yet- and an elite defense pretty much intact the Bucs will be one of the NFL’s best yet again but I do expect a bit of a fall off.

• Tennessee Titans 9.5 (Last Season: 12)

The Titans have never had a record worse than 9-7 under Mike Vrabel. Could this be the year we see Tennessee fall off?

The Tennessee offense will still run through Derrick Henry but they might be running him into the ground. Any running back’s best friend is his offensive line, this offseason we saw Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry leave Tennessee and take their talents to the Bills leaving the Titans with two massive holes and not the kind Henry can run through. Saffold and Quessenberry weren’t the only significant players to leave this offense either. The Titans inexplicably decided they didn’t want to pay their all-world WR AJ Brown and shipped him off to Philadelphia. They’d go on to replace him with rookie Treylon Burks and Robert Woods coming off a torn ACL. Ryan Tannehill is a quarterback that just isn’t ever greater than the sum of his parts and I don’t think these parts are enough to lift him up. Treylon Burks is coming on slow. We saw him playing deep into playoff games with second and third stringers and even against backups he wasn’t getting much done. I do like Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine but neither of them are a true WR1. 

The Titans have probably the league’s best safety duo in Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker, corners with potential, a true monster up front in Jeffrey Simmons, and a budding star David Long at LB. Still, after losing their top pass rusher Harold Landry for the season I’m not sure this defense will have the juice to be the elite defense I think they’ll need to be to carry this team.

A team many thought was entering a super bowl window a year ago is now doing their best to close it. The Titans’ one-saving grace might be a lousy division but with the Jaguars and Texans steadily improving I believe this could be the year the Titans fall off. I’m not willing to be bolder on this because I think Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL.    

Be on the lookout for WKTN’s NFL Podcast releasing Wednesday.